Nate Silver, Barack Obama, and normal people all have the same Final Four in their March Madness brackets this year.
The teams: Florida (1-seed, South region), Arizona (1-seed, West region), Louisville (4-seed, Midwest region), Michigan State (4-seed, East region).
According to ESPN, 8.9% of the 6.1 million brackets on ESPN.com have that Final Four, by far the most popular combination.
That’s an abnormally high percentage. Last year the most popular Final Four combination only accounted for 4.5% of all brackets on ESPN.com.
President Obama, a big hoops fan, went with the popular consensus.
It’s not just regular people who love this combination. Silver, whose new ESPN-owned website launched this week, also has Florida-Arizona-Louisville-Michigan State.
He uses an algorithm that determines the favourites in each region. He gives Florida a 41% chance of making the Final Four, Arizona a 42% chance, Louisville a 38% chance, and Michigan State a 24% chance.
When you do the maths (based on Silver’s numbers), his numbers give this most likely Final Four combination just a 1.57% chance of happening. So despite the popular consensus, it’s still unlikely.
Here’s the bracket:
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