Most economists think the RBA will cut again, and more are starting to think rates will hit 1%


Almost every economist surveyed by Bloomberg now expects that there’ll be one more rate cut from the RBA, taking the cash rate to another record low of just 1.25%.

Of 24 surveyed, 8 are forecasting that the next rate cut will arrive in November, shortly after the release of the ABS’s September quarter CPI report.

Those calling for a cut at this meeting include AMP Capital, the Commonwealth Bank and St George.

Looking out one year, there are only 7 forecasting that the cash rate will remain at its current level of 1.50% — ANZ, HSBC, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, UBS and Westpac.

Every other forecaster, 16 in total, sees the cash rate being lower.

Eight even see the cash rate sitting at 1%, implying that there’ll be not one rate cut but two.

Those in this group include JP Morgan, Macquarie Research and Morgan Stanley.

Cash rate futures — essentially market expectations as to where the cash rate will head — currently have the nadir for interest rates at 1.25%.

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