Almost every economist surveyed by Bloomberg now expects that there’ll be one more rate cut from the RBA, taking the cash rate to another record low of just 1.25%.
Of 24 surveyed, 8 are forecasting that the next rate cut will arrive in November, shortly after the release of the ABS’s September quarter CPI report.
Those calling for a cut at this meeting include AMP Capital, the Commonwealth Bank and St George.
Looking out one year, there are only 7 forecasting that the cash rate will remain at its current level of 1.50% — ANZ, HSBC, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, UBS and Westpac.
Every other forecaster, 16 in total, sees the cash rate being lower.
Eight even see the cash rate sitting at 1%, implying that there’ll be not one rate cut but two.
Those in this group include JP Morgan, Macquarie Research and Morgan Stanley.
Cash rate futures — essentially market expectations as to where the cash rate will head — currently have the nadir for interest rates at 1.25%.