Surprise! You’ll Never Guess Who Was The Most Accurate Pollster This Election Season…

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

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Fordham’s political science department has published a list of the most and least accurate pollsters of the 2012 campaign between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.The top and bottom of the list are equally surprising. Two left-leaning Democratic pollsters top the list: Public Policy Polling, which nailed the election prediction if Florida goes for Obama, and the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, a weekly tracking poll. 

Meanwhile, near the bottom of the list is the poll that we’ve been tracking for a while now — Gallup. It came in 24th out of 27 polls in the rankings.

Also notable: YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos, which rank an impressive third and fourth in the list, are conducted online.

Here’s the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favourable to Obama, and polls without were more favourable to Romney):

1. PPP (D)*

1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*

3. YouGov*

4. Ipsos/Reuters*

5. Purple Strategies



6. YouGov/Economist



11. Angus-Reid*

12. ABC/WP*

13. Pew Research*

13. Hartford Courant/UConn*


15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA

15. Politico/GWU/Battleground

15. FOX News

15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics

15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics

15. American Research Group

15. Gravis Marketing

23. Democracy Corps (D)*

24. Rasmussen

24. Gallup

26. NPR

27. National Journal*

28. AP/GfK

Here’s what everyone got wrong about the polls >