Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker believes that weakness in economic indicators is being misread. Global growth, and American growth, was supposed to slow as we entered the second half of the year, thus many leading indicators and other data points were expected to decline. Markets are nevertheless so uncertain, that the ‘rolling over’ of many indicators is playing with investors nerves. Thus far however, Mr. Secker doesn’t believe the global economy is falling back into recession.
What we’re seeing in the markets right now is merely a ‘market event rather than a real economic even’ he says.
Still think this is more like 1998 than 2008
The recent performance of both equities and bonds is worrying; however, we continue to believe that we are currently witnessing a stock market event rather than a real economic event. Our economists are confident that the global economy will not double-dip and we agree with them. In short, we think this is more like 1998 (when an EM-led sovereign debt crisis and LTCM-inspired financial crisis caused a huge growth scare) than 2008. [emphasis added] If we are right in this assumption, then Exhibits 1-3 suggest that both equities and bond yields can fall further in the short term before rebounding strongly thereafter. Timing short-term moves in these markets is tricky at best; however we do expect equities to be meaningfully higher by year-end.
Here’s the similar performance he mentions, for U.S. stocks:
Then for U.S. government bonds:
But not quite Europe:
His take-away — Expect near-term weakness, but long-term strength.
(Via Morgan Stanley, Graham Secker)