Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks Tesla will deliver only a third of the Model X’s he expected next year, and the stock is down almost 4%.
“We have adopted our Model X forecasts not only for a 3Q launch (which we expect to be late 3Q), but also for a slow ramp once deliveries begin,” said Jonas’ note. “Our forecasts apply what we believe to be reasonable execution risk on this important model to ensure uncompromising quality of initial units.We recently raised a question about whether a seemingly mundane attribute of the car, the falcon doors, could prove to be a technical challenge at scale.”
In other words — as Elon Musk said after the company’s earnings last month — it’s really hard to manufacture something.
“Demand is not our issue; production is our issue,” Musk said. “We have more demand than we can address and levers we can pull to increase demand, and we’re not doing it.”
Jonas is slashing delivery estimates from 15,000 t0 5,000. His price target, however, remains unchanged at $US320.
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