Morgan Stanley Presents 3 Huge Risks Looming For The Stock Market

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In a new note, Morgan Stanley’s Ronan Carr, Graham Secker, Matthew Garman, and Christopher J. Sellers, present what they see as the three risks in the next stage of the cycle.

They are:

  • Rising inflation.
  • Fears of higher interest rates.
  • An imminent peak of lead indicators.

The note includes some good charts on how these might play out.

We're approaching levels where oil will hurt demand

Not surprisingly, energy does best post energy spikes

Historically, oil jumps precede recessions

The ISm is clearly pointing to upside risk for the CPI

Econ data is getting closer to where central banks begin hiking

Countries where central banks are tightening tend to have underperforming markets

Meanwhile, stocks tend to roll over when leading indicators do.

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