If this is really it for economic expansion, and the globe slides back into a recession, it will break an ominous record.
From Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels:
Keep in mind that this global recovery is only two years old – it only started in the middle of 2009. On average, recoveries in the global economy have lasted a little more than six years. The shortest one over the past 40 years took place in the second half of the 1970s and lasted only four years. The longest one was in the 1980s and ended after eight years (see Exhibit 1). Recoveries typically end when major imbalances in an economy have developed and become unsustainable – such as overinvestment in the late 1990s or overconsumption in the late 2000s – and when monetary policy becomes very tight. Neither is true now.
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