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Many economists have warned that we could see some warm weather “payback” in the jobs data. This is the idea that hiring during the recent unseasonably warm winter came at the cost of spring and summer hiring.Morgan Stanley’s economics team led by David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman pointed us to the line item that provided proof that pay back was real. From a note this morning:
Our favourite proxy for weather-related influences on the employment data — the “not at work due to bad weather” series in the household survey — was 51,000 in April (on a nonag basis). This is right in line with the seasonal norm. Of course, this comes on the heels of a string of much lower than usual readings stretching from November to February. So, a portion of the moderation in employment growth seen over the past two months likely reflects a payback for the seasonal elevation that had been evident in prior months.
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