Interesting chart from the latest Morgan Stanley FX Pulse.
A month that sees gains in the S&P, gold, US Treasuries, and oil is a month that’s likely to be a top.
Photo: Morgan Stanley
It’s not the most satisfying measure. For one thing, we’re only going back to January of 2007 here. Furthermore, there’s one false positive in the bunch from late 2009.
It is interesting though, since there’s so much talk about how in 2012 markets are not correlated at all, at least from an equity perspective.
If nothing else, this is a good reminder that it’s super-rare to see a rally in all of these at the same time — we suspect, though, that if you took USTs out of the mix, you’d see it way more often.