Photo: Morgan Stanley
Optimism for the U.S. economy has been coming back in a big way as the surprisingly positive data flows in.Yesterday, Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Reinhart published a big report titled “US Economics: An Inflection Point Ahead.”
“The severe financial crisis of 2008-09 necessitated significant downward adjustments by the private sector to the levels of aggregate demand and efficient supply,” he wrote. “As the event recedes further into history, however, the drag on growth from these ongoing level adjustments plays out.”
Click Here To See The Presentation >
Reinhart expects to the economy to accelerate in a major way within the next few months.
“In the Morgan Stanley forecast for the US, the trajectory of economic activity marks an inflection point midway through 2013,” he wrote. “Economic activity is currently held down by fiscal consolidation. However, the expansion of real GDP steps up to around 2-3/4 per cent in the second half of this year and beyond.”
In a 22-slide presentation accompanying the report, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economics team points to an array of bright spots including the rebounding housing market, the resilient consumer, and the improving labour market.
They also point to major issues that will continue to hinder growth. However, the overall message is an extremely positive one.
NOTE: Thanks to Morgan Stanley for allowing us to feature Mr. Reinhart’s presentation.
Morgan Stanley's current forecasts could be proven incorrect depending on the size of government cuts and business investment among other things.
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