Morgan Stanley Increases The Odds Of A Greek Exit To 35% Within 18 Months

Highway Exit

Photo: UPTRAIN via Flickr

Morgan Stanley has increased its chances of a Greek exit from the Eurozone to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, and reduced the time projection of the exit to 12-18 months from five years.”An ugly ‘European Divorce’ scenario can’t be ruled out either if economic divergences or political fragmentation prevail,” they write in a note to client.  “Our subjective probability for a divorce has risen to 35% and could rise rapidly in the run-up to the Greek election on June 17.”

They warn that a Greek exit will escalate contagion risks both before and after the exit. The other PIIGS countries, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain are the most at risk.

SEE ALSO: This Is What Happens If Greece Exits The Euro >

NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos

Want to read a more in-depth view on the trends influencing Australian business and the global economy? BI / Research is designed to help executives and industry leaders understand the major challenges and opportunities for industry, technology, strategy and the economy in the future. Sign up for free at research.businessinsider.com.au.

Tagged In

grexit moneygame-us