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Yesterday, Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin declared the end of the great gold bull market.Today, Morgan Stanley’s Hussein Allidina is making the exact opposite call, arguing that gold is the best commodity for 2013.
“We maintain our long-standing recommendation of overweight exposure to precious metals as conditions underpinning the gold bull-run largely remain in place,” writes Allidina.
He also likes silver, but Morgan Stanley is most bullish on gold. From Alidina’s his note:
- Weaker USD: The US Federal Reserve commitment to a near zero Federal Funds rate though 2014 and open ended purchases of mortgage backed securities should continue to pressure the value of the US dollar on a TWI basis. At the same, the ECB’s decision to adopt an unlimited bond purchase program through the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) initiative, subject to the conditionality of a full EFSF/ESM facility, reduced downside risks for the euro and increased the likelihood of downward pressure on the TWI of the USD, via the USD/EUR cross rate.
- Central Bank buying: Central banks’ preference for gold as a reserve portfolio asset further underpins the continued growth in gold investment demand. 3QTD, net increases in central bank holdings were 268t or 8,616Mozs, led primarily by emerging market central banks. The official sector has now been a net buyer of gold each year since 2009, as developed economies’ central banks have sold increasingly small quantities of gold.
- ETF demand: The bedrock of growth in investment and retail demand remains the physically backed exchange traded funds (ETFs). In the 3Q12, global ETF holdings increased by 189t, a 56% increase YoY.
- Recovery in Indian demand: Moreover, the Indian jewellery and investment market is also showing signs of recovery as Indian purchasers acclimate to recent price trends amid restocking ahead of the Indian wedding and festival season.
Allidina forecasts gold to have an average 2013 price of $1,853/ounce.