The spike in market volatility and the slide in stock prices have people freaked out we’re on the verge of a bear market or perhaps even a crash.
Worries include the slowing global economy, falling prices, heightened geopolitical tensions, and wild cards like the spread of the Ebola virus.
However, the market’s optimists have yet to capitulate. Indeed, they have a laundry list of “buts,” or reasons why the bull market and economic recovery are far from over.
Monday’s summary of “buts” comes from Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels in his Sunday Start note:
… but there are some important offsets: lower oil prices are a boon for consumers, bolstering real incomes, and lower bond yields provide some relief for EM economies running external deficits and thus relying on external financing. And the strength of the US dollar versus the euro in recent months is exactly what the doctor ordered for the European economy.
Sure, things like falling energy prices and deteriorating currency values are the consequences of economic deterioration. But they often also serve as the stimulus to turn things around.