Brexit — the nickname given to Britain’s potential exit from the European Union — is one of the most contentioius issues in the UK, with arguments from both ‘In’ and ‘Out’ camps dominating the news in recent weeks.
In Britain, the debate so far has understandably focused on how Brexit will affect people within the country, but the impact of Britain leaving the EU would spread wider, and American bank Morgan Stanley wants to shed some light on what those consequences could be.
In a massive note titled “What Brexit Would Mean For Europe” analysts from the bank examine in detail a whole load of depth issues surrounding the EU referendum, from how Brexit would affect emerging economies in Europe, all the way to the whether or not big banks headquartered in the UK might leave if Britain votes to leave.
One of the biggest problems Morgan Stanley points to is the effect Brexit could have on GDP across Europe, and particularly within the Eurozone. Here’s the chart:
Morgan Stanley argues that next year, should Britain vote to leave the EU, as much as 1.5% could be wiped off the GDP of the Eurozone. Using the most recent data from Eurostat, which puts total Eurozone GDP at €10.4 trillion (£8.05 trillion; $11.45 trillion) that figure would represent in excess of €150 billion (£116 billion; $165.1 billion).
Its important to stress that this is Morgan Stanley’s “High Stress Scenario” — essentially the worst outcome possible, and the bank also has much more modest estimates about what may happen. However it’s still pretty scary to think that Brexit could cost the Eurozone such a huge amount of money.