Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley’s top interest rate strategist, sent a very clear message in his latest research note, which is titled: “Read My Lips: Buy Bonds.”
“Fading the Treasury market rally would not be prudent, at this juncture, given risks to the economic outlook in the coming weeks,” wrote Hornbach on Friday. “A possible government shutdown, increasing odds of a debt ceiling debacle, and economic data that could disappoint have led us to suggest maxing out duration overweights.”
Bond prices had been trending down since May when the Federal Reserve signaled it would soon start tapering its large-scale asset purchase program, which includes the monthly purchases of $US85 billion worth of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds.
But when the Fed announced no taper last week, bond prices spiked.
Economists caution that the taper will eventually come, which means a large customer in the bond market will eventually pull out.
For now, Hornbach says buy.
“We think a decline in realised volatility as Treasury yields grind toward lower yields will encourage more buying from investors who have been more or less absent year to date,” he wrote. ” Another technical factor that could support the Treasury market over the coming weeks is a reversal of the bond fund outflows seen since June.”
“We believe that investors should take advantage of a market psychology that remains shell-shocked from the Fed decision not to taper, and one that can no longer use Summers to justify a faster taper and higher short rates,” he added.
Hornbach recommends 5-year and 10-year Treasury notes.
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