“We like US stocks, right here right now.”
In a note to clients on Monday, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker writes that this is the time to buy US stocks, giving investors 3 reasons why now is the time to jump into stocks.
- GDP growth this year will mirror 2014. There’ll be modest growth in the first quarter followed by acceleration in Q2 and Q3 when setbacks like unseasonal weather fade away.
- Bottom-up earnings estimates are too low, which is rare, since this has happened only six times in nearly 40 years. The multiple typically climbs when bottom-up expectations are raised. Morgan Stanley’s top-down forecast for EPS is $US124, compared to $US119 bottom-up. (Top-down forecasts are equity strategist forecasts; bottom-up forecasts are an aggregate of all individual equity analyst forecasts.)
- Investors aren’t overly upbeat about US stocks: net hedge fund exposure is sitting at its 5-year averages. This gives headroom for growth.
In his note, Parker reiterates the firm’s long-term thesis that we are currently in the middle of “the longest expansion ever.”
And while others point to risks all over, whether it’s the situation in Greece or the Fed’s looming rate hikes, Parker remains firmly bullish. His note, after all, was titled “We Are Full of Bull.”