Photo: Feng Li/Getty Images
Despite the recent slowdown, Morgan Stanley analyst Helen Qiao is very optimistic on the Chinese economy.She expects the economy to grow 8.5 per cent this year and 9 per cent in 2013.
In fact, she believes a 6 – 7 per cent growth rate is “below China’s long-term potential level and is unsustainable”.
Qiao says she anticipates growth to pick up in the second half of the year on more policy easing:
“Our particularly optimistic view on China’s growth this year and next are based on the fact that we believe policymakers are going to step up the policy easing pretty quickly in the third quarter. And we need to see more actions including for example on the monetary side we’re expecting two more interest rate cuts and additional reserve requirement ratio cuts and open market operation actions.
And if we fail to see that I’m afraid that’s not a good sign and that could lead to the growth level dropping below our expectation starting from Q3 and going into Q4 and even next year. So there could be downward pressure to our numbers.”
Qiao also said she is more concerned about growth than inflation or deflation and that the current slowdown is caused by cyclical and structural factors:
“On the structural part we clearly have seen that China has rotated its structural drivers away from external demand and more towards domestic demand. That alone cost China 2 percentage points of potential growth.
However on the cyclical front we also have seen the tendency of policy over-tightening in the the past two years – on both the property policy side and the monetary policy side. And as a result we are now seeing a very interesting negative output gap in China, which means that China’s current growth level is potentially lower than the long-term potential level, and that is seen by the CPI inflation dropping very quickly and also PPI in deflation territory in the long-term and also we’re seeing the industrial profit deteriorating on top of which we’re currently also discovering some signs of stress from unemployment.”