“Some call it the summer lull, but to me it seems we have simply arrived in what we expected to be a ‘boring but better‘ second half of the year,” said Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels.
Fels is reiterating Morgan Stanley’s house view, which they laid out in June.
Morgan Stanley isn’t the only Wall Street firm calling this market boring. Goldman Sachs recently characterised it as “challengingly boring.“
Things have been boring because frankly things have been pretty good.
“Global growth is improving mildly, lowflation is here to stay, central banks remain accommodative, equity markets and the US dollar are grinding higher, and bond yields are going nowhere for now,” said Fels. “Yawn.”
All of this generally good news has kept volatility out of the financial markets, making it quite boring for the pros on Wall Street who sell more of their services when things are moving.
Of course, there are various geopolitical risks out there lingering; think Iraq, Ukraine, and Russia. And there are major concern in overseas economies; Europe is weak and China is slowing.
“Geopolitical risk is ever-present but unpredictable by nature,” warned Deutsche Bank’s Raj Hindocha and Marcos Arana. “While a large scale geopolitical risk event is not our base case, investors should be mindful of alternative scenarios relative to the benign outcome currently expected by markets.”
But for now we can’t complain. After all, things are getting better.
“Layoffs are falling and bank lending is accelerating — two powerful statistical indicators of the economy’s building momentum heading into H2 14,” said UBS’s Maury Harris, who sees “3 handled” real GDP growth from now through 2015.
“The major expected behavioural drivers continue to be pent-up demand and lagged positive credit impacts from earlier QE. From the Fed’s perspective, housing is a downside risk, although we believe recently tepid mortgage applications and new home sales should pick up with better job creation and related household formation.”
So, boring. But better.
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