These 16 Companies Are Leading A Retail Revolution

shopping cart ecommerce

Photo: Business Insider

Morgan Stanley’s internet and retail research teams led by Scott Devitt just published a big report on global eCommerce, which they project will be a $1 trillion market by 2016.eCommerce and retail are engaged in a zero-sum game: one company’s gain in eCommerce is another’s lost retail sales. As such, the team refers to eCommerce in the context of “retail sales disruption.”

The analysts made five conclusions:

1) Fulfillment infrastructure is critical.
2) Some categories (e.g. groceries, personal care products) are resistant to change.
3) Third-party marketplaces can prosper.  For example, Amazon’s third-party volumes are growing faster than its first-party business.
4) Mobile eCommerce is an untapped opportunity.
5) Big players (e.g. Walmart, Amazon) will get bigger thanks to footprint and scale.

The team estimates that eCommerce currently comprises about 6.5 per cent of total retail sales globally, and expect that figure to rise to just under 10 per cent by 2016.

Morgan Stanley identified 16 companies best-positioned for this ongoing disruption.


Ticker: AMZN

1-Yr Return:
+41.9 per cent

Most disruptive force in eCommerce; continued share gain

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Blue Nile

Ticker: NILE

1-Yr Return:
+1.3 per cent

Leader in engagement; opportunity in non-engagement

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: EBAY

1-Yr Return:
+72.3 per cent

Largest global marketplace; accelerating GMV growth

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: COST

1-Yr Return:
+36.5 per cent

Highly defensible merchandising strategy

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: M

1-Yr Return:
+12.1 per cent

Industry-leading multi-channel sales strategy

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: JWN

1-Yr Return:
+12.2 per cent

Best in class operator with long-term growth initiatives

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: WMT

1-Yr Return:
+19.9 per cent

Low price leader; build or buy stronger online positioning

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: WSM

1-Yr Return:
+26.6 per cent

Strong furnishing brands benefit from 'showrooming'

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Urban Outfitters

Ticker: URBN

1-Yr Return:
+49.6 per cent

Leading mobile / online initiatives; expect margin rebound

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Under Armour

Ticker: UA

1-Yr Return:
+33.1 per cent

Expect 20%+ revenue growth from new sales initiatives

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: ASC:LN

1-Yr Return:
+91.1 per cent

Most visited apparel website in the world

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: MELI

1-Yr Return:
+3.3 per cent

Largest pure play eCommerce marketplace in LatAm

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: 4755:JP

1-Yr Return:
-13.1 per cent

Largest eCommerce player in Japan; strong track record

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: 1880:HK

1-Yr Return:
+38.4 per cent

Best-positioned to be leading specialty retailer in China

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Ticker: 1833:HK

1-Yr Return:
+38.1 per cent

Leading dept store chain with dominant market share

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Sun Art

Ticker: 6808: HK

1-Yr Return:
+26.5 per cent

Consolidating food industry; defensible from competition

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

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