Guessing where the stock market will be a year from now is a sucker’s game. The latest entrants into the sucker’s pageant are the equity analysts for Morgan Stanley and UBS—and the two banks have come to dramatically different conclusions, according to Bloomberg.
UBS’s Jeffry Palma says we’re likely to see “double digit” gains in US equities. Of course, a year ago the same guy said US equities would lead a 10 per cent global advance in stocks during 2008. Investors relying on that kind of advice would have been badly beaten up in this year’s market.
Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma predicts next year will be similar to this year, although he hopes it won’t be as “severe.” He sees a rise of about 2 per cent in the next twelve months.
The good news is that both these forecasts seem to indicate we won’t find our selves mired in a Great Depression 2.0 next year. The bad news? Both may simply be assuming away the possibility of the Great Depression 2.0, not taking seriously the possibility that despite all government efforts we won’t be able to ward off economic calamity.