Morgan Stanley is calling the top for Adidas, saying the German sports brand “may have peaked.”
Nike, meanwhile, is set to take ground from Adidas on its home turf — Europe.
In the first edition of its Alphawise European Sportwear note, sent to clients on Thursday, the investment bank says it has taken the temperature of European consumer, surveying 5,268 people across the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
And what it found are a host of indications pointing to Nike overtaking Adidas in Western Europe.
There are 3 key charts that spell out its theory. Here’s the first:
Nike and Adidas, the top 2 on that chart, rank pretty closely in terms of items bought in the last 12 months and items you already own.
But crucially, Nike outranks ranks Adidas as the “favourite” brand of more consumers — Nike’s score on that metric is 10 percentage points higher than Adidas’.
Here’s the second chart:
What this shows that while more people have bought Adidas in the last 12 months than Nike (shown in the first chart), more people are likely to buy a Nike product next than Adidas. That suggests a shift in momentum.
And here’s the third chart:
What this shows is that Nike is much stronger with younger consumers than Adidas. Over 10% more 19-24-year-olds plan to buy a Nike item next than a piece of Adidas clothing.
In fact, Nike has a lead in every age group but its widest gap is with the younger generation — 13-24-year-olds.
What all this adds up to is that while Adidas is more popular at the moment in Europe, the wind appears to be in Nike’s sails. The survey suggests Nike has a strong fan base among millennial consumers, a huge consumer base.
Morgan Stanley’s Louise Singlehurst and team write: “Investors overlook the European market we believe with the view Adidas is dominant and Nike second. With both brands of similar size, our analysis suggests there is closer competition between the two and Adidas could be at risk of losing share in its home market to Nike.”