Tacoda Systems founder Dave Morgan, now an EVP at AOL (TWX), says online ad rates are going to keep heading up. No surprise there, because Dave tends to be pretty optimistic in the essays he pens for MediaPost. But Dave says that not every sector is growing. Some kind of inventory, he says, is headed down:
- Premium branded-content sites, which will get the bulk of brand advertising as it moves online.
- Social networks, who will be able to use targeting to improve their rates, and who are moving off a low base to begin with.
- Small niche content sites (hooray!) and ad networks that provide access to those sites, such as FM Publishing (hooray!) and Google AdSense (hooray!).
- Big, undifferentiated portals lose, as ad networks take their volume ad business and target more effectively.
Sound familiar? It should: Dave’s made the same argument before. But we still find it compelling.
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