Monday’s Bounce Off Lows Looks to Have Been a Short Covering Rally — Monday, April 18 was one of the wildest Mondays we have seen in a while.  In the pre-market, S&P released that it is lowering its outlook on the U.S. credit rating/debt.  On that piece of news, the market sold off aggressively before the bell and the decline continued after the open as well.  By about 11a, the S&P futures were down about 28 handles.  Any panic selling must have died down pretty quickly because the market began to recover after seeing the low tick of the day at 11:05a.  In fact, the ES closed 81bps off its low.  I looked for all days since 2000 when the Spooz closed down on a day in which it traded in a >25 handle day range and bounced off its low by at least 75bps.  I also included a criteria specifying that the market was in a downtrend, defined as when the 8D moving average is below the 15D moving average.  This scenario has played out 81 times, or roughly 2.9% of the time.  Then, I examined what tends to occur in the market following this type of resilience.

I will start out with some basic probability stats:

Range Input 25.00 % Off Low 0.75% Next Day Pct Chg Input 0.00% Number of Instances 81 Number that Meets Criteria 40 Number of Higher High Next Days 32 Number of Lower Low Next Days 41 Number of High Above R4 Next Days 28 Number of Low Below S4 Next Days 28 Probability of Up 0% Next Time Period 49.38% Probability of Higher High Next Day 39.51% Probability of Lower Low Next Day 50.62% Probability of Ticking Above R4 Next Day 34.57% 

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