- Mohamed El-Erian warned the US economy could rebound without a jobs recovery.
- The Allianz economist suggested workers might lack the skills employers want.
- El-Erian predicted an “everything rally” and advised investors not to cash out.
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Leading economist Mohamed El-Erian raised the prospect of a jobless recovery and advised investors to hold their nerve in a CNBC interview this week.
Pointing to the disappointing US employment data last week, Allianz’s chief economic adviser questioned whether workers have the necessary skills to fill the jobs available. Employers may have embraced new technologies such as AI, robotics, and automation faster than the labor market, he added.
“That’s the biggest fear we have because what we don’t want is a jobless recovery,” El-Erian said. “There’s a massive question mark as to how many will actually be able to get jobs again, or be willing to get jobs again.”
He cited improved unemployment benefits, insufficient childcare, and school closures as other potential drivers of the weak jobs data. If people are earning more by staying home instead of working, and if parents can’t leave their kids at daycare or at school, they might not be filling the jobs available.
El-Erian also recommended investors resist the urge to cash out as inflation fears and signs of market excess mount. “You will get the everything rally,” he predicted, arguing that monetary and fiscal stimulus will continue pumping liquidity into markets and boosting asset prices in the weeks to come.
“Leon Cooperman captured it really well: “Even if you’re worried about the world, you want to be a fully invested bear,'” he added, referring to the billionaire investor’s current stance on markets.