The folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have projected the 2013 Major League Baseball season using various models. The results suggest that the two best teams in baseball are the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Angels.
You can read more about the projection at their website, but here are the basics: Five different mathematical models projected the stats for every player in baseball. Each of these models were then used to simulate the 2013 season “hundreds of thousands” of times.
There is a range of results over the course of the simulations. For example, the Nationals finished anywhere from 79 to 102 wins (results within one standard deviation of the mean), but averaged a NL-best 90 wins.
But maybe the most important number is the division title and playoff probabilities. These represent how often the team either won the division or made the playoffs (either as a division winner or a Wild Card) during the simulations. In the AL, the Tigers have the best chance of winning their division even though they average two fewer wins than the Angels. This is because the Tigers play in a weaker division.
Of course, things can change during the season and this does not necessarily tell us which teams might do well in the small-sample postseason. But as of right now, the Angels and Nationals have the best rosters in baseball…
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