With about 25% of the season left to be played, five of MLB’s ten playoff spots are already spoken for and 11 teams can go ahead and make other plans for October. That means there are a whopping 14 teams still battling for the final five spots.
If we use the playoff projection model of BaseballProspectus.com and consider 95% the cutoff for teams that are locks to make the playoffs, the A’s (99.7%), Angels (98.9%), Dodgers (98.8%), Nationals (95.1%), and Orioles (94.6%) are in. At the other end, 11 teams have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs and really have no shot.
The number of teams with at least a shot at making the playoffs (19) is up this season. Using a similar model from CoolStandings.com, there were just 15 teams with at least a 5% chance to make the playoffs on this date in 2013 and 17 in 2012. With just one Wild Card team in each league there were just 13 teams still alive at this point in 2011 and 12 in 2010.
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