Baseball Experts Were Only 37% Correct On Predicting MLB Playoff Teams

Tampa Bay Rays and their Fans

Photo: AP

Now that the 2011 regular season in Major League Baseball has come to an end, let’s take a look back and see just how well the “experts” were at predicting who would make the playoffs.Prior to the season, 45 experts submitted their picks to win each of baseball’s six divisions as well as the two wild cards. We’ll ignore where the teams finished (wild card vs division winners) and just look at how many of each expert’s eight playoff predictions actually made the playoffs.

Here are the results… Expert Baseball Picks

40-five experts made a total of 360 playoff predictions. Of those, 37.2 per cent were correct. And of the 45 making picks, only one (Peter Pascarelli) got at least five of his picks correct. He correctly picked the Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals, and Phillies.

The most common correct picks to make the playoffs were the Philadelphia Phillies (picked by 93.3%), New York Yankees (75.6%), and Detroit Tigers (68.9%). On the other hand, all 45 experts picked the Boston Red Sox to make the playoffs.

Of the eight playoff teams, four made it as longshots. The Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona D-Backs, and St. Louis Cardinals were all picked by less than 20 per cent of the experts. The D-Backs were the longest of long shots as not one expert picked Arizona to make the postseason.

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