Santorum’s surge in Michigan is getting all the press right now, but let’s get one thing straight: Mitt Romney is winning Arizona in a walk tonight.In even the closest polls of that state Rick Santorum is still behind by double digits.
The latest PPP poll has the race shaking out like this:
All the media is focusing on Michigan, where 30 delegates are at stake in the Republican race for the nomination. But that’s because Romney there is a real story there, and a potential humiliation for Romney: he could lose the state his father once governed.
But there is one thing that is not really in doubt tonight: Mitt Romney is going to win the most delegates in tonight’s primaries. Arizona awards 29 delegates, and Romney is certain to get the largest vote there, and he still has the best odds of winning Michigan. Even if Santorum takes 1 more delegate from Michigan (which awards 30), Romney is going to take several more from Arizona.
This isn’t to minimize the upset that Rick Santorum might pull off tonight – it would be very embarrassing for Romney to lose Michigan. But if this is a race for delegates and not just favourable media coverage: Romney is going to be tonight’s winner.
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