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After staring at an extremely narrow path to Electoral College victory just two weeks ago, Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama in several national polls and is closing the gap in most swing states as well. Still, Romney faces a daunting challenge. As it stands now, all plausible paths to 270 votes will run through Ohio.
New York Times stat guru Nate Silver gives Ohio a 40.4 per cent chance to be the election’s “tipping point” state, about 24 per cent higher than any other state.
Assuming Romney can hold on to Florida and its 29 electoral votes — the latest polls show him tied with Obama, on average — the must-win will be Ohio.
Even if Florida goes to Romney, things would be much simpler for Obama if he wins Ohio. He get to 270 this way...
Virginia = 13 electoral votes
Iowa = 6 electoral votes
Wisconsin and Nevada account for 16 electoral votes, and they are two states in which Obama still holds about 2-point average leads after his debate debacle.
If Romney wins Ohio, his path becomes much more plausible. He has to hold on to a state that currently tilts in his favour (Colorado) and take Virginia, currently tilting slightly Obama.
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