A Chinese commerce minister thinks that March data, when it comes out, could show that China has lost its export surplus and has a trade deficit.
“A country’s currency appreciation is very limited in helping to rebalance global trade,” he said. “I personally expect that China could possibly have a trade deficit in March.”
On the one hand such a forecast could be seen as a defence against global criticism of China’s trade practices.
But on the other hand if it was simply a made-up excuse rather than an authentic forecast, the minister would have probably chosen a time period further out.
We’ll know pretty soon whether ot not his forecast is correct, and if indeed Chine reports a trade deficit then the nation will be freed from a substantial amount of international pressure on the trade front. Except with the U.S., of course, where the China-U.S. trade surplus probably has little chance of disappearing any time soon.