Really interesting stat from NFL Draft expert Mike Mayock during a conference call this afternoon: In the last eight years, 65% (15/23) of quarterbacks drafted in the first round have become starting QBs. During the same time, only 8.5% (7/82) of quarterbacks drafted outside the first round have become starting QBs.That’s why so many mediocre, unheralded QBs skyrocket up draft boards and get taken way earlier than they should.
If you want a starter, you need to take one in the first round.
More from Mayock:
Because of the value placed on the franchise quarterback in this league, because the salary cap is now friendly in the first round toward these quarterbacks, and because everyone is in a feeding frenzy to get one, these guys’ values are getting pushed up.
As an example Mayock used Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill — who is now a projected top-10 pick after being an relative unknown as early as last fall. Tannehill shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 10, Mayock said:
If you just take him on face value today with 19 starts, he shouldn’t be a top 10 pick. He has a lot of potential. I love the kid, I love his work ethic, I love his potential, but he shouldn’t be a top-10 pick, maybe not a top-15 or -20 pick. But in today’s NFL, there’s a good chance he would be.
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