Microsoft Will Beat Apple In Mobile By 2015, Says Gartner

steve ballmer microsoft

Photo: AP

Every deal has a winner, and Microsoft is going to be the winner in its recent deal with Nokia.So says research firm Gartner, predicting that Microsoft will rise to number-two in the smartphone market by 2015, putting it ahead of Apple’s iOS. Gartner is even more bullish on Windows Phone than IDG, which drew a similar conclusion earlier this month.

The firm says that Microsoft will ship about 216 Windows Phone handsets in 2015, giving it 19.5% share of the smartphone market.

That’s great news for Microsoft, which is basically nowhere today, but not so great for Nokia — Symbian currently has 37.6% market share, so swapping out for Windows Phone will lead to a big net loss in market share.

The big winner, according to Gartner: Android, with nearly 50% of the market. Gartner believes Apple’s market share will peak this year, then begin to decline as Microsoft and Android take over.

Of course, there’s enough growth for everyone — even RIM, which will increase its shipments nearly 3x in the next four years, while losing market share.

Here’s the full chart:

OS

2010

2011

2012

2015

Symbian

111,577

89,930

32,666

661

Market Share (%)

37.6

19.2

5.2

0.1

Android

67,225

179,873

310,088

539,318

Market Share (%)

22.7

38.5

49.2

48.8

Research In Motion

47,452

62,600

79,335

122,864

Market Share (%)

16.0

13.4

12.6

11.1

iOS

46,598

90,560

118,848

189,924

Market Share (%)

15.7

19.4

18.9

17.2

Microsoft

12,378

26,346

68,156

215,998

Market Share (%)

4.2

5.6

10.8

19.5

Other Operating Systems

11,417.4

18,392.3

21,383.7

36,133.9

Market Share (%)

3.8

3.9

3.4

3.3

Total Market

296,647

  467,701

  630,476

  1,104,898

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