Microsoft Cortana — the virtual assistant that is picking every game of the NFL season on Bing — had a nice week, going 10-4 in straight-up picks in Week 5 of the NFL.
The strong showing helped improve its overall record to 48-29 (62%). Nate Silver’s Elo model had an ever better week, going 12-2 to bump its percentage to 67% correct.
Both Cortana and Elo missed on the Ravens and Chiefs, which were the two biggest upsets of the week. Where Cortana also faltered was picking home underdogs: the Titans and Chargers both fell at home to teams favoured by Las Vegas.
This week — and for the first time all season — Cortana and Vegas are in complete agreement. The closest game, according to Cortana’s algorithm, will be the Bengals at the Bills, in which Cortana gives the Bengals a 52% chance to win. On the other end of the competitive spectrum, Cortana expects the Packers and Patriots to both win easily, with 78% and 70% chances, respectively.
As usual, you can search “NFL Predictions” on Bing to access Cortana’s picks, and you can now also read the Bing Predicts explanations for their decisions over at Bing Blogs. Vegas point spreads are in parentheses, and all lines are courtesy of Vegas Insider.
- Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New Orleans Saints — Falcons 60% chance
- Denver Broncos (-4) at Cleveland Browns — Broncos 64%
- Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills — Bengals 52%
- Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings — Vikings 61%
- Houston Texans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars — Texans 53%
- Chicago Bears (+3) at Detroit Lions — Lions 67%
- Washington Redskins (+6) at New York Jets — Jets 70%
- Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers 55%
- Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans — Titans 58%
- Carolina Panthers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks 58%
- San Diego Chargers (+10) at Green Bay Packers — Packers 78%
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers — Ravens 61%
- New England Patriots (-8) at Indianapolis Colts — Patriots 70%
- New York Giants (+4) at Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles 56%
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