Week 4 was a dismal week for Microsoft’s Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that’s picking every NFL game this year.
Cortana went 5-8 in its worst week of the year.
It’s now 34-27 on the year.
That’s much worse than Nate Silver’s ELO model, which is now 41-20 after going 10-3 in Week 3. It’s also worse than Vegas favourites, which have a 35-26 win-loss record on the year.
The Cortana model is powered by Bing Predicts, and uses a public sentiment metric (along with traditional advanced statistics) to make its predictions. It picks games straight up, not against the point spread, so that 34-27 record is pretty rough.
Cortana caught fire in the World Cup group stage, correctly picking 15 of the tournament’s last 16 games. Maybe we’ll see a similar comeback in its NFL picks.
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers — Packers win, 70.2% chance (Packers -9)
- Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers — Panthers win, 56.6% chance (Panthers -2.5)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans — Titans win, 53.3% chance (Titans -1.5)
- St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win, 77.8% chance (Eagles -7)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants — Giants win, 64.4% chance (Giants -4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints — Saints win, 80% chance (Saints -10.5)
- Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys — Cowboys win, 68.8% chance (Cowboys-4)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions — Lions win, 61.4% chance (Lions -7)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts — Colts win, 61.4% chance (Colts -3.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Steelers win, 78.9% chance (Steelers -6.5)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos — Broncos win, 67.4% chance (Broncos -7)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers — 49ers win, 56.6% (49ers -6.5)
- New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers — Chargers win, 76.7% chance (Chargers -6.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots — Patriots win, 62.9% chance (Bengals -1)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins — Seahawks win, 64.4% chance (Seahawks -7.5)
Cortana and Vegas only disagree on one game: Bengals vs. Patriots.
Here are Cortana’s results so far this year:
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