Microsoft's NFL Prediction Engine Beat The Las Vegas Favourites In Week 1 -- Here Are Its Picks For Week 2

Matt ryan atlanta falcons covered in fireScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesCortana nailed its Falcons prediction when Matt Ryan led Atlanta to an OT win.

Microsoft Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that’s predicting the winner of every NFL game this season, went 10-6 in Week 1.

That doesn’t sound like a great percentage, but it’s actually better than the 9-7 win-loss record that Las Vegas favourites had in the first week of the season.

Vegas and Cortana only differed on one game last week: New Orleans vs. Atlanta. Vegas had the Saints as the favourite while Cortana gave the Falcons a 61.4% chance to win outright. The Falcons won 34-31 in overtime.

Nate Silver’s ELO rating system also went 10-6. His model projected the Saints to beat the Falcons, but it also had the Panthers beating the Buccaneers (which both Cortana and Vegas got wrong).

Cortana didn’t nail Week 1 like it did the World Cup (where it went 15-1 in the knockout stages), but it will be interesting to see if it gets more accurate once the season gets going and it has a larger, fresher set of data to work with.

Here are the Cortana picks for Week 2 (Vegas favourites as of Tuesday morning in parentheses):

  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens — Steelers win, 59.8% chance (Ravens -2.5)
  • Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills — Bills win, 62.9% chance (Miami -1)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins — Redskins win, 53.3% chance (Redskins -6)
  • Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans — Titans win, 61.4% chance (Titans -3.5)
  • Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants — Cardinals win, 59.8% chance (Giants -1)
  • New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings — Patriots win, 61.4% chance (Patriots -3)
  • New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns — Saints win, 59.8% chance (Saints -6)
  • Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals — Bengals win, 61.4% chance (Bengals -5)
  • Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers — Panthers win, 56.6% chance (Panthers -2.5)
  • St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win, 56.6% chance (Buccaneers -5)
  • Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers — Seahawks win, 56.6% chance (Seahawks -6)
  • Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders — Texans win, 53.3% chance (Texans -3)
  • New York Jets at Green Bay Packers — Packers win, 55% chance (Packers -8)
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos — Broncos win, 56.6% chance (Broncos -13)
  • Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers — 49ers win, 78.9% chance (49ers -7)
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts — Eagles win, 58.2% chance (Eagles -3)

Cortana and Vegas disagree on Ravens-Steelers, Dolphins-Bills, and Giants-Cardinals.

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