In a week of football defined by upsets, Microsoft Cortana — the virtual assistant that is picking the outright winner of every NFL game this season — struggled to a 4-10 result in Week 10. The difficult week pushed its overall record to 93-53 (63%).
Just about everyone struggled in Week 10, as two overwhelming favourites (the Packers and Bengals) both lost at home to sub-.500 teams. Nevertheless, Cortana is closing the gap on Nate Silver’s Elo model, which boasts a 65% correct rate with 95 correct picks and 50 misses. Again, the three fewer picks from Elo come in games that it pegs 50/50.
Week 11 features a number of intriguing match-ups, including two games that Vegas has as pick-’ems (PK). In those games (Cowboys @ Dolphins and Packers @ Vikings) Cortana likes both home teams. Elsewhere, Cortana thinks that both the Panthers and Patriots will remain undefeated, and that the Broncos, without Peyton Manning, will still beat the Bears in Chicago.
As always, Cortana only picks the outright winner of every game, and the Vegas point-spread (in parentheses) is only included for comparison’s sake, via Vegas Insider. You can find Cortana’s picks over at Bing. You can also see how Cortana compares to over 100 experts’ picks at NFL Pick Watch.
- Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars — Jaguars 61% chance to win.
- Washington Redskins (+7) @ Carolina Panthers — Panthers 72%
- Oakland Raiders (-1.5) @ Detroit Lions — Lions 57%
- Dallas Cowboys (PK) @ Miami Dolphins — Dolphins 64%
- Indianapolis Colts (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons — Falcons 69%
- St. Louis Rams (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens — Ravens 60%
- NY Jets (-2.5) @ Houston Texans — Jets 57%
- Green Bay Packers (PK) @ Minnesota Vikings — Vikings 55%
- Tampa Buccaneers (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles 66%
- Denver Broncos (+1) @ Chicago Bears — Broncos 55%
- Cincinnati Bengals (+4) @ Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals 60%
- San Francisco 49ers (+12.5) @ Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks 75%
- Kansas Chiefs (-3) @ San Diego Chargers — Chiefs 64%
- Buffalo Bills (+7) @ New England Patriots — Patriots 79%
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