Here's a stack of statistics to help you decide who to back in the Melbourne Cup

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If you’re having trouble choosing which horse to back in this year’s Melbourne Cup, we may have something of interest you.

Based on previous results, PrimaryMarkets has produced a variety of statistics to help narrow down your search.

Kind of like a game of Guess Who, for those who have played in the past.

Here’s what it found about the influence of barrier number on the final result.

  • Barrier five is the most successful since 1983, producing four of the 35 winners.
  • Stalls 6, 12, 15, 18, 19, 23 & 24 have not produced a winner in the past 30 years.
  • Since the barrier stalls were introduced in 1924, no winner has ever jumped from gate 18.
  • 21 of the past 35 winners jumped from the inside half of the field; i.e. barriers 1-12 in fields of 24.
  • Since 1996, 13 of 21 winners jumped from the inside division.
  • The last winner from the outside barrier was Brew — 22/22 in 2000.
  • The most recent winner from the coveted inside stall was Prince Of Penzance in 2015.

So the insider runners have generally fared better than those jumping out wide over the history of the Cup.

As for the characteristics of the Cup winner, PrimaryMarkets says older runners tend to do well. Those carrying 55kgs or less have also won the vast majority of Cups over the past three decades.

  • 11 of the past 19 winners were six year-olds, including six of the last eight — Almandin, Prince Of Penzance, Fiorente, Green Moon, Dunaden and Americain.
  • Overall, horses aged six-year-old and above have won 19 of the last 35 editions, Almandin the most recent in 2016.
  • 5YO’s have won 8 times — Protectionist the most recent in 2014.
  • 4YO’s on 8 occasions — Rekindling the latest in 2017.
  • Geldings have won 15 of the 35 editions since 1983, the most recent Almandin in 2016.
  • Entires have saluted 13 times in that period, the most recent Rekindling.
  • Mares have taken the honours seven times in the last three decades with Makybe Diva the latest in 2005.
  • Three-year-olds had a great record in early Cup history winning 22 of the first 60 renewals. But the last of that age group to salute was Skipton in 1941.
  • 25 of the past 35 winners carried 55kg or less.
  • Just five winners have carried 56kgs or more — Protectionist 56.5kg in 2014, Delta Blues 56kg in 2006, Makybe Diva 58kg in 2005, Might And Power 56kg in 1997 and Jeune 56.5kg in 1994.
  • Makybe Diva was the last winner to wear the Number 1 saddlecloth to victory. Prior to that it was Rising Fast in 1954.
  • More than a few statistics to help you narrow down your search.

    And remember — past performance is not indicative of future returns.

    Good luck!

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