One Of The Most Reliable Indicators Of Job Creation Is Sending A Bullish Signal

The Federal Reserve has just released the results of its Senior Loan Officer Survey.

The good news: banks show business loans are leading the credit thaw.

“Easier lending standards are usually associated with later employment growth,” said UBS economist Ethan Harris.

From the report:

The survey results generally indicated that banks’ policies regarding lending to businesses eased over the past three months and demand increased, on balance. In particular, a relatively large fraction of domestic respondents reported having eased standards on C&I loans, and moderate to large net fractions of such respondents reportedly eased many terms on C&I loans to firms of all sizes.3    Banks that eased their C&I lending policies generally cited increased competition for such loans as an important reason for having done so. Demand for C&I loans also reportedly increased, but such reports were less widespread than in the previous survey. A moderate net fraction of banks reported having eased their CRE lending standards over the past three months and relatively large fractions continued to report an increase in demand for such loans. On net, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks reported that standards on CRE loans were about unchanged, but moderate fractions reported that demand strengthened on such loans.

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