HUGE MISS FROM THE PHILLY FED: Just 3.9 Vs. Expected 20.0

The number:

Oof. The Philly Fed survey clocked in at just 3.9 vs expectations of 20, and well down from 18.5 last time.

This helps confirm that the slowdown we’ve been seeing lately is spreading.

This is the lowest reading since October:


It’s not all horrible. The jobs situation is improving:

Firms’ responses continue to indicate overall improvement in the labour market despite weaker activity, orders, and ship-ments. The current employment index increased nearly 10 points and has now remained positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (32 per cent) is higher than the percentage reporting a decline (10 per cent). Only slightly more firms reported a longer workweek (17 per cent) than reported a shorter one (13 per cent) and the workweek index decreased 14 points.


Background: A popular watched index for manufacturing, analysts are looking for 20, compared to an 18.5 reading last time.

Anything positive is growth.