Photo: AP Images
We saw some pretty horrible numbers out of China in April.For a while, some argued that China had a handle on its slowdown, after all they put in place policies to cool GDP growth and curb speculation.
But then, Chinese GDP Q1 GDP eased to 8.1 per cent, retail sales, imports, exports, industrial production and fixed asset investment (FAI) all came in weaker than expected.
The chatter about a Chinese hard landing gathered steam and reports emerged that Chinese banks wouldn’t meet their lending targets.
So, about three weeks after cutting RRR rates, Beijing announced a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday, quite possibly in anticipation of some weak data out this weekend.
So what are we looking for?
June 8, 2012
- CPI data for May will be released at 9:30 p.m. ET. Expectations are for consumer prices to ease to 3.2 per cent year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.4 per cent last month.
- May PPI data will also be out at the same time and producer prices are expected to decline 1.1 per cent YoY, compared with a 0.7 per cent decline the previous month.
Update: Chinese CPI rose 3.0 per cent YoY, while PPI fell 1.4 per cent YoY.June 9, 2012
- Industrial production for May will be out at 1:30 a.m. ET. And year-to-date (YTD) industrial production is expected to rise 10.8 per cent. For the month of May consensus is for a 9.8 per cent rise.
- YTD Fixed Asset investment (FAI) for April including rural is expected to increase 20 per cent YoY, down from 20.2 per cent in April.
- May retail sales are expected to rise 14.2 per cent YoY. YTD retail sales are expected to increase 14.6 per cent YoY, down from 14.7 per cent in April.
Update: Industrial output climbed 9.6 per cent YoY in May. FAI came nearly in line with expectations rising 20.1 year-to-date from a year ago. Meanwhile, retail sales eased to 13.8 per cent in May, from 14.1 per cent the previous month.
June 10, 2012
- Trade balance, imports and exports data for May will all be out Sunday. Imports are expected to increase 5.5 per cent YoY in May, after the paltry 0.3 per cent rise in April. Exports are expected to grow 7.1 per cent YoY, against 4.9 per cent increase in May. Finally, trade balance is expected to narrow to $16.25 billion in May, from $18.43 billion the previous month.
In the week from June 11 – 15, we expect new loans and money supply data that should indicate the first impact of Beijing’s efforts to boost investment. For now, it’s just wait and watch.
Don’t Miss: Here Are 15 Reasons Why Everyone’s Suddenly Freaking Out About China >
Note: A previous version of this article erroneously stated that Industrial production would be out at 1:30 p.m. ET.