Earlier we mentioned how John Mauldin was at a (wine-soaked) dinner in Europe, where one notable economist predicted the demise of the euro.
In his latest note, he offers up another idea, sourced to nobody except his own speculation
A Greek Coup?
Now, time for some speculation on my part. For Greece to leave the euro, the politicians would have to make a rather serious decision. That will not happen overnight. The minute there was any speculation or a “secret” meeting of Greek leaders to discuss leaving the euro, the run on the banks would be massive and fast. It would all come down quickly.
To go back to the drachma would require a bank holiday for a week, and it would have to be a surprise move. About the only way for that to happen would be a military coup coupled with a bank holiday and promises to return to elections after the currency issue was solved. The current government does not have the votes or the power to declare a holiday and move to the drachma, or at least they don’t as I read it. Just a thought.
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