Public Policy Polling is out with a new survey this morning on the gay marriage referendum likely to be on the Maryland ballot this fall.
It’s historic, because it shows that Maryland is likely to pass—by a wide margin—the referendum holding up the bill that lawmakers passed in late February. It’s incredible because of the shift in previous polls, particularly among black voters in Maryland.
Check out this flip: In March, 56 per cent of black respondents said they would vote against the law, with only 39 per cent supporting it. Now, 55 per cent of black voters plan to support it, with only 36 per cent opposing it.
That’s a 36-point swing in two months.
Photo: Public Policy Polling
And though it’s hurting him slightly in early polls, support for gay marriage has picked up enormously since Obama’s public support two weeks ago.
While the media has been focused on what impact President Obama’s announcement will have on his own reelection prospects, the more important fallout may be the impact his position is having on public opinion about same-sex marriage itself.
Maryland voters were already prepared to support marriage equality at the polls this fall even before President Obama’s announcement. But now it appears that passage will come by a much stronger margin.
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