Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker gave an excellent overview of the state of tech and Internet sector at Web 2.0. This high-level perspective is Mary’s forte, and she’s really good at it. Full presentation here. Some interesting points below:
A People-Driven Medium:
- Consumer IP traffic should surpass enterprise for first time in 2008
- IP traffic should double every two years through 2011 (high def video)
Huge potential for Mobile, but…
- 10% of 3.2 billion global mobile subs now on 3G or better.
- 91% of mobile users keep handset within 1 meter reach 24/7
- Control freak incumbent carriers still getting in the way….
US now only small portion of vast global market
- 70% of PCs outside US
- 86% of Internet users outside US
- Emerging market users growing 30%+, US 3%
- Non-US mobile users: 92% of global market
- China Internet market capitalisation now $50 billion, up from $5 5 years ago
Macro Enterprise Spending May Be Turning Up
- Web 2.0 technology to drive next big corporate purchasing cycle
- Corporate technology spending shows signs of accelerating
- Productivity gains may be on upswing again.
Recession Could Have Major Impact
- Don’t underestimate importance of sub-prime problems.
- Average GDP growth forecasts already cut to 2% from 3% over just 4 months
- Only good news: US share of global GDP has declined to 19%
- Ads: 26% growth Y/Y., still only 10% of total
- Commerce: 19% growth y/y, still only 4% of total
- Online music: +107% y/y, 11% of total (global)
- 208 million global users, up 185% year over year
- 21 billion minutes, up 335%
- 220 million users, up 94%
- About 7% of wireless users, 5% of wireline.
Update on Future Morgan Stanley Banking Clients
- Compelling pitches for many of them, including Facebook, Joost, Demand Media, and Slide.
Technology Investing Still Winner-Take-All
- 2% of public companies create 100% of the wealth.
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