Markets Are Loving The No Vote In The Scottish Referendum

Screen Shot 2014 09 19 at 06.17.01BBCIn Edinburgh last night, Alex Salmond conceded defeat

The anti-independence campaign in Scotland has triumphed, and markets are breathing a sigh of relief this morning.

The pound is up 0.33% against the dollar, climbing as the result became increasingly obvious, now up to around $US1.645, and the 5% selloff projected by FxPro’s Angus Campbell has now been consigned to history’s dustbin.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.71% at the time of writing, with Scottish companies like Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management up by more than 1.5% and among the leaders of the index. RBS, which could have moved south in the result of a Yes vote, is up by more than 4%.

The pound’s rally isn’t over either, according to IHS Global Insight chief UK economist, Howard Archer, in a research note:

“We would expect to see a relief rally for the pound allowing it to recoup some of the losses it suffered as the polls showed the independence side gaining.”

The Spanish IBEX stock index is up by more than 1% this morning too, with perhaps a little relief in Madrid that Scotland hasn’t set an example for Catalonia.

Pretty much everyone in the City is satisfied. Dominic Bryant at BNP Paribas said in a note to investors: “You can almost hear the sigh of relief among Westminster politicians, city analysts and under-prepared businesses and investors.”

“Voting No was undoubtedly the less risky choice and avoided what may well have been a significant economic shock to Scotland and the rest of the UK.”

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