Next week looks busy, between global economic indicators and the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for July 20.
After the collapse in manufacturing in June, and the horrible German economic sentiment numbers, Societe Generale gives us the highlights of the coming week:
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey, July 16: Manufacturing in the north east plunged after the Empire state survey fell to 2.29 in June. SocGen analysts are looking for the business conditions index to rise modestly to 5.70.
- U.S. retail sales, July 16: “Stepped-up auto-dealer revenues, combined with an anticipated rebound in building materials purchases, likely propelled retail and food services sales 0.4% higher in June, erasing all but a fraction of the decline posted over the April-May span.”
- The German ZEW economic sentiment survey, July 17: As the strong arm of Europe, all eyes are on Germany’s economic sentiment survey which plunged in June. SocGen analysts “expect another deterioration in both the economic sentiment and the current situation, but not nearly as severe as the exceptional weakness reported in June.” Their consensus is for economic sentiment to decline to -25 and for a current situation reading of 25.
- U.S. and UK inflation, July 17: After a downward inflation trend UK consumer prices should be unchanged at 2.8 per cent year-over-year in June. In the U.S. inflation is expected to increase for a fourth straight month but at a marginal rate of 0.2 per cent per month.
- Philadelphia Fed Survey, July 19: The Philly Fed collapsed to -16.6 in May. SocGen analysts expect the survey to contract for a third straight month, improving slightly to -14.7 per cent.
- UK retail sales, July 19: “Sales have been highly volatile of late, buffeted by varying weather conditions.” But analysts are looking for a 1 per cent month-over-month increase.
- Eurogroup meeting, July 20: The meeting is expected to deliver a finalization of the Memorandum of Understanding for financial assistance to the Spanish banking sector. The meeting could also offer more details on Greece’s compliance with its financial programs.
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