Fresh Fed minutes are coming out tomorrow, and for the first time in a while, Bernanke may not simply cut & paste what he wrote last time.BTIG’s Mike O’Rourke warns you:
Tomorrow the FOMC minutes from the March 16th meeting will be released. At the time of that meeting, we noted we expected now to be an appropriate time for the Fed to begin to lay the groundwork to change the “exceptionally and extended” language. In doing so, it will put the FOMC in a position to make a formal language change at this month’s meeting on April 28th. In altering the language, the FOMC will still not be expected to tighten monetary policy until October or November at the earliest. As economic data improves, if the members want to leave themselves the room to move in 2010 if necessary, the language will need to change soon. A very first gradual shift may have already occurred. Last Thursday, New York Fed President and FOMC Vice Chair Bill Dudley invoked the “exceptionally and extended” language in reference to the March minutes, but more importantly, he referred to the recovery as sustainable. “We have been very aggressive in providing support to the economy, and it now appears that a sustainable recovery is underway.” Dudley is squarely in the dove camp, and is quick to rattle off the litany of headwinds to the recovery. Therefore, such a notable statement could signal this early transition is occurring. We will be looking to tomorrow’s release for additional signs.
If this happens, there’s a good chance the dollar will go nuts.
Another reason to think Bernanke will get in the raising mood soon: All those industrial commodities going nuts >
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