The number is out and it’s disappointing. The annual gain of 2.3% is a bit less than the 3% expected, but the real story is in the sequential data, which showed a deterioration in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we’re basically flat. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, there was a notable decline in the Month.
Below we present two charts, first showing the Year-over-year change, and the second showing the sequential index data, which clearly shows a March dip.
The bad news has worsened the morning’s market decline.
“The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year; but, when you look at recent trends there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In the past several months we have seen some relatively weak reports across many of the markets we cover. Thirteen MSAs and the two Composites saw their prices drop in March over February. Boston was flat. The National Composite fell by 3.2% compared to the previous quarter and the two Composites are down for the sixth consecutive month.
“While year-over-year results for the National Composite, 18 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites
improved, the most recent monthly data are not as encouraging. It is especially disappointing that the
improvement we saw in sales and starts in March did not find its way to home prices. Now that the tax
incentive ended on April 30th, we don’t expect to see a boost in relative demand.”
Here’s a look at the sequential numbers:
As you can see from the solid line, we’re clearly dipping sequentially in a way we haven’t done before.
And finally, here’s the city-by-city look
Now don’t miss: The 13 housing markets that will never recover >
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