Here Comes The Economic Canary In The Coalmine...

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South Korean trade data will be released at 8:00 PM ET.

Exports are expected to have increased by 1.8 per cent year-over-year in March.  This is up from -8.6 per cent in February.

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Sure, it’s a cliche.  But economists across Wall Street dub South Korean exports as the global economic canary in the coalmine.

Korean trade data usually comes before the first trading session of the month in Asia, which makes it the first of the world’s major economic indicators to be released.

Because Korea’s exports are heavily exposed to China and Japan — the world’s second and third largest economies — it is consider to have strong predictive power.

Below is a chart from Morgan Stanley‘s Joachim Fels. It shows how Korean exports are a leading indicator for global trade.

 

Morgan Stanley

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