The latest state-of-the-Manhattan-condo-market report is out from Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. After suffering several horrible quarters, the market, like everything else, is showing some signs of life, helped, no doubt, by the fact that Wall Street is now brimming with money again.
As with many national housing statistics, we’re still seeing a huge decline on a year-over-year basis, but a slight improvement sequentially.
Over the past two decades, the number of Manhattan co-op and condo sales has tended to peak in the second quarter. This year the peak level of activity was pushed forward three months to the third quarter as a result of the frozen market conditions last fall beginning with the 9/15/08 market tipping point (Lehman bankruptcy). As a result, the “spring” market effectively occurred this summer reflecting a release of pent-up demand, improved consumer confidence buoyed by a rising stock market, record low mortgage rates, increased affordability and the first time buyers tax credit. The surge in activity caused price levels to move sideways and inventory to trend lower. Yet due to elevated unemployment levels, shadow inventory and tight credit, the Manhattan housing market can best be characterised as “turning the corner” but has not yet found a “bottom.”
Key Trend Metrics
-Average sales price was $1,323,462, down 10.6% from $1,480,363 in the prior year quarter but up 0.8% from $1,312,920 in the prior quarter.
-Price per square foot was $996, down 16.5% from $1,193 in the prior year quarter and down 5.7% from $1,056 in the prior quarter.
-Median sales price was $850,000, down 8.4% from $928,263 in the prior year quarter but up 1.7% from $835,700 in the prior quarter.
-Number of sales declined 16% to 2,230 sales from 2,654 sales from the prior year quarter but increased 45.6% from 1,532 units in the prior quarter.
-Listing inventory declined 4.6% to 8,389 units from 8,794 units at this time last year and fell 10.5% from 9,378 units in the prior quarter.
-Days on market was 167 days, up from 134 days this time last year.
-Listing discount was 7.6%, up from 2.6% in the same period last year.
-Absorption rate was 11.3 months, above the 10-year 10 month average and above the 5.6 month rate during the same period 2 years ago.