Yesterday we posted a straightfoward chart plotting Manhattan apartment prices against Wall Street bonuses, a vivid picture of how the two marched together. Now, of course, bonuses are falling off a cliff. A Manhattan real estate insider passes along more info from the ground, showing the unsold inventory is soaring. Here’s his email us. Your thoughts and input would be greatly appreciated:
These are the really relevant statistics. more relevant than the junk in the nytimes, etc.
1. inventory now at 11,000 listed homes, condos and coops in manhattan which is almost 3x normal
2. inventory actually grew 1200 units over the last 30-days (the attached stats are a couple of weeks old and the listing velocity INCREASED the last 2 weeks)
sellers are now adding 1500 units per month to listed inventory and brokers are only getting contracts signed on about 300 units per month.
4 years of inventory if no new listings added
1/4 of all listed homes will never, ever sell if metrics remain the same as today
brokers are still using the same old, say anything to get the listing method. sellers don’t realise the broker is not the buyer. listings are sitting for months. sellers think even though stock equity went down and stocks are sold at a loss, somehow you are never supposed to sell a home for less than you paid.
some neighborhoods like upper east side have already begun to move sharply down. others seem to be full of clueless owners who are happy to listen to their broker promise that they can achieve their price even though they can’t. they are all waiting for a miracle that’s not coming.
one more year of NoBonus and we’ll see prices averaging 20% below peak, where peak is prior actual sales prices (not asking prices).
And here’s the chart that shows just how fast inventory is piling up.
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